KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 19:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.8¢Risks 3.88u

EPSNO 92.2¢Risks 46.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.12u · EPS −46.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	37.0%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	12.3%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	24.4%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	11.9%	18.9%	0.5%	—	17.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	21.5%	21.5%	0.4%	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.5%	22.8%	5.4%	—	1.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.9%	10.8%	2.6%	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.0%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.8%	3.3%	2.2%	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.5%	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.2%	3.2%	1.7%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.4%	6.9%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.3%	4.6%	0.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.9%	3.0%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.3%	3.0%	0.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.5%	4.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.9%	4.9%	0.4%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.3%	3.1%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	2.8%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	1.2%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	77.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	78.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	76.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	72.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	72.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗