KCHS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST—Time unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	61.0%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	51.9%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	89.0%	—	—	82.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	31.8%	71.8%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	66.4%	84.7%	21.4%	—	57.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	47.1%	70.9%	51.5%	—	61.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	71.1%	76.1%	40.2%	—	50.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	75.8%	78.8%	33.0%	—	32.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	12.6%	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	70.7%	74.9%	71.4%	53.3%	—	52.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	50.9%	74.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	74.5%	70.9%	38.8%	—	48.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	70.6%	76.5%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	73.4%	76.3%	38.2%	—	42.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	37.9%	78.3%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	40.4%	81.7%	49.0%	—	39.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	42.0%	72.6%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	31.2%	76.5%	35.9%	—	37.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	39.5%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	59.7%	36.1%	67.9%	33.1%	—	37.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	33.6%	61.1%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	35.2%	69.0%	28.0%	0.0%	33.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	40.5%	74.7%	33.6%	—	39.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	41.3%	80.9%	41.3%	46.3%	43.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	85.0%	36.1%	—	38.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗