KCHS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

86%

56%

52%

30%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.5¢Risks 59.45u

ICONNO 40.5¢Risks 40.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.55u · ICON −40.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:18+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	84.1%	35.2%	84.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	84.1%	35.2%	84.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	84.1%	35.2%	84.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	92.4%	35.2%	84.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	92.4%	35.2%	84.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	92.4%	35.2%	84.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	92.4%	35.2%	83.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	92.4%	35.2%	83.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	92.4%	35.2%	83.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	92.4%	35.2%	83.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	92.4%	64.8%	83.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	92.8%	64.8%	83.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:59+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	92.8%	64.8%	83.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	89.1%	33.4%	92.8%	64.8%	83.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	92.8%	64.8%	83.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	92.8%	64.8%	83.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	92.8%	64.8%	83.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	92.8%	64.8%	83.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:21+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	92.8%	64.8%	83.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	93.1%	64.8%	83.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	93.1%	64.8%	83.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	90.5%	33.4%	93.1%	64.8%	83.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	90.1%	33.4%	93.1%	53.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	90.1%	33.4%	93.1%	53.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00	90.1%	33.4%	93.1%	53.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	90.1%	33.4%	93.1%	53.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	90.1%	33.4%	93.1%	53.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	90.1%	67.4%	93.7%	53.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	90.1%	67.4%	93.7%	53.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	90.1%	67.4%	93.7%	53.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	87.2%	67.4%	93.7%	53.2%	83.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	87.1%	67.4%	93.7%	53.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	87.1%	70.9%	93.7%	53.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	87.1%	70.9%	93.7%	53.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	87.1%	70.9%	92.2%	53.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	87.1%	70.9%	92.2%	53.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	87.1%	70.9%	92.2%	53.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	87.1%	70.9%	92.2%	53.2%	83.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	87.6%	70.9%	92.2%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	87.6%	70.9%	92.2%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	87.6%	70.9%	92.2%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	87.6%	70.9%	92.2%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	87.6%	70.9%	89.6%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	87.6%	70.9%	89.6%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	87.6%	70.9%	89.6%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	87.6%	70.9%	89.6%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	88.9%	70.9%	89.6%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	88.9%	70.9%	89.6%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	88.9%	70.9%	89.6%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00	88.9%	70.9%	89.6%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	88.9%	70.9%	92.2%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	88.9%	70.9%	92.2%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	88.9%	70.9%	92.2%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	88.9%	70.9%	92.2%	49.2%	81.6%
2026-10-18T08:00:59+00:00	90.9%	70.9%	92.2%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	90.9%	70.9%	92.2%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	90.9%	70.9%	92.2%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	90.9%	70.9%	92.2%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	90.9%	62.2%	92.3%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	90.9%	62.2%	92.3%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	90.9%	62.2%	92.3%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	90.9%	62.2%	92.3%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	89.3%	61.8%	92.3%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	89.3%	61.8%	92.3%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	89.3%	51.9%	92.3%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	89.3%	51.9%	92.3%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	89.3%	51.9%	92.3%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	89.3%	51.9%	92.3%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	89.3%	51.9%	92.3%	51.8%	47.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	92.3%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	92.3%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	92.3%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	92.3%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	92.3%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	90.9%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	90.9%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	90.9%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	90.9%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	90.9%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:54+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	90.9%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	90.9%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	90.9%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	90.9%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	90.9%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	87.0%	51.9%	90.9%	46.4%	38.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:49+00:00	85.5%	51.9%	90.9%	48.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	85.5%	51.9%	90.9%	48.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	85.5%	51.9%	90.9%	48.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	85.5%	51.9%	90.9%	48.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	85.5%	51.9%	90.9%	48.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:43+00:00	85.5%	45.0%	87.7%	48.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	85.5%	45.0%	87.7%	48.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	85.5%	45.0%	87.7%	48.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	84.4%	45.0%	87.7%	48.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	84.5%	45.0%	87.7%	48.1%	32.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:00	87.8%	46.7%	84.9%	42.3%	32.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	87.8%	46.7%	84.9%	42.3%	32.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	87.8%	46.7%	85.6%	42.3%	32.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	87.8%	46.7%	85.6%	42.3%	32.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	87.8%	46.7%	85.6%	42.3%	32.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:53+00:00	89.4%	46.7%	85.6%	42.3%	29.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	89.4%	46.7%	85.6%	42.3%	29.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	89.4%	46.7%	85.6%	42.3%	29.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	89.4%	46.7%	85.6%	42.3%	29.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00	89.4%	51.5%	85.7%	56.4%	29.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	89.4%	51.5%	85.7%	56.4%	29.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	89.4%	51.5%	85.7%	56.4%	29.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	89.4%	51.5%	85.7%	56.4%	29.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00	89.4%	51.5%	85.7%	56.4%	29.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	89.4%	51.5%	85.7%	56.4%	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	77.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	75.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	73.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	72.6°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	70.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗