KCHS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.4¢Risks 3.68u

EPSNO 92.7¢Risks 46.33u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.33u · EPS −46.33u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T11:39:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:27+00:00	42.2%	0.6%	44.8%	4.4%	17.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:42+00:00	42.2%	1.0%	18.8%	4.4%	17.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	42.2%	1.0%	18.8%	4.4%	17.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	42.2%	1.0%	18.8%	4.4%	17.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	13.5%	1.0%	18.8%	4.4%	17.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	13.5%	1.0%	19.0%	4.4%	17.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:07+00:00	13.5%	1.2%	19.0%	4.4%	17.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	13.5%	1.2%	19.0%	4.4%	17.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	13.5%	1.2%	19.0%	4.4%	17.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	13.5%	1.2%	16.9%	4.4%	17.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	13.5%	1.2%	16.9%	4.4%	17.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	13.5%	1.2%	16.9%	4.4%	17.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	16.8%	1.2%	16.9%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	16.8%	1.2%	16.9%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	16.8%	1.2%	16.9%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	16.8%	1.2%	16.9%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	16.8%	1.2%	16.9%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	16.8%	1.2%	18.5%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	16.8%	1.2%	18.5%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	16.8%	1.2%	18.5%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	15.5%	1.2%	18.5%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	15.5%	1.2%	18.5%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	15.5%	1.2%	18.5%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T04:01:57+00:00	15.5%	1.2%	18.5%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	15.5%	1.2%	18.5%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	15.5%	1.2%	19.5%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	15.5%	1.2%	19.5%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	15.5%	1.2%	19.5%	3.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:17+00:00	2.5%	1.2%	19.5%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	2.5%	1.2%	19.5%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	2.5%	1.2%	19.5%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	2.5%	1.2%	19.5%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	2.5%	1.2%	19.5%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:11+00:00	2.5%	1.2%	12.8%	6.4%	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	14%	75.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	78.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	73.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	72.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	75.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗