KCHS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.4¢Risks 3.68u

EPSNO 92.7¢Risks 46.33u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.33u · EPS −46.33u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	9.0%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	4.6%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	28.4%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	1.0%	9.9%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	6.5%	18.0%	0.3%	—	3.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.8%	7.1%	2.4%	—	4.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	6.0%	8.1%	0.9%	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	6.7%	8.1%	0.4%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.0%	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	5.1%	4.1%	1.3%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.0%	4.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	3.9%	3.1%	0.3%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	2.6%	3.9%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	2.8%	3.4%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.2%	3.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.2%	3.8%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.1%	1.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	14%	75.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	78.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	73.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	72.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	75.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗