KCHS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 06:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

17%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.2¢Risks 4.62u

EPSNO 90.8¢Risks 45.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.38u · EPS −45.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	12.0%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.8%	0.5%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	6.5%	9.0%	0.1%	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	3.9%	7.6%	1.8%	—	2.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.6%	10.7%	1.8%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	5.7%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.6%	7.5%	1.5%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.0%	7.6%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.4%	6.6%	0.4%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.3%	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.3%	2.8%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.3%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.1%	2.8%	0.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.3%	1.9%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.1%	2.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	1.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	18%	78.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	77.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	10%	73.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	70.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	74.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	72.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261023-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗