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KCHS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 18:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
15%
HRES
12%
AIFS
2%
EPS
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 7.8¢Risks 3.88u
VS
WN2NO 92.2¢Risks 46.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.12u · WN2 −46.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:49+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00IFS HRES: 12.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:49+00:00IFS HRES: 12.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 12.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 12.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 12.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00IFS HRES: 12.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00IFS HRES: 12.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00IFS HRES: 12.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00IFS HRES: 12.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 12.3% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:49+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 13:3610-19 18:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:49+00:001.9%2.8%0.7%12.3%14.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:001.9%2.8%0.7%12.3%14.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:001.9%2.8%0.7%12.3%14.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:001.9%2.8%0.7%12.3%14.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:001.9%2.8%0.7%12.3%14.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:002.0%1.2%0.6%12.3%14.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:002.0%1.2%0.6%12.3%14.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:002.0%1.0%0.8%12.3%14.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:002.0%1.0%0.8%12.3%14.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:002.0%1.0%0.8%12.3%14.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON15%71.6°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES12%72.3°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast7%73.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
National Blend5%72.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
AIFS Single2%75.9°F4.6°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%71.6°F2.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%75.5°F3.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261023-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Charleston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗