KCHS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 18:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.8¢Risks 3.88u

WN2NO 92.2¢Risks 46.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.12u · WN2 −46.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	12.0%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	56.9%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	47.4%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	37.4%	44.6%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	9.6%	6.9%	59.7%	—	13.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	12.0%	6.6%	19.9%	—	14.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	28.9%	3.5%	16.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	6.1%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	24.8%	3.9%	14.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	60.5%	3.3%	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	25.8%	3.3%	23.2%	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	24.6%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	22.8%	5.4%	27.7%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	18.4%	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	23.0%	3.8%	25.9%	—	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	14.8%	4.2%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	17.7%	3.0%	21.0%	20.3%	12.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	3.0%	—	—	15.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	71.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	72.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	72.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	75.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	71.6°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	75.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261023-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Charleston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗