WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KCHS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≤ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
15%
HRES
14%
EPS
2%
AIFS
2%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 7.6¢Risks 3.82u
VS
WN2NO 92.3¢Risks 46.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.17u · WN2 −46.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:001.6%2.3%0.6%14.5%14.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:001.6%2.3%0.6%14.5%14.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:001.6%2.3%0.6%14.5%14.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:001.6%2.3%0.6%14.5%14.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:001.6%2.3%0.6%14.4%14.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON15%70.6°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES14%70.8°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend12%72.0°F5.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast11%71.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%71.1°F2.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single2%75.3°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%74.8°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 65°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261024-TMAX-LE65
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Charleston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 65°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗