KCHS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≤ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.6¢Risks 3.82u

WN2NO 92.3¢Risks 46.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.17u · WN2 −46.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	1.9%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	41.3%	17.1%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	55.6%	4.9%	67.7%	—	19.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	47.8%	3.3%	29.1%	—	21.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	36.5%	2.0%	8.4%	—	15.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	37.5%	5.9%	18.4%	—	20.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	78.2%	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	40.9%	3.1%	11.2%	—	35.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	27.4%	3.9%	—	—	95.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	22.8%	3.4%	7.0%	13.1%	19.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	2.2%	—	—	22.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	70.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	70.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	72.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	71.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	75.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	74.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 65°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261024-TMAX-LE65
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Charleston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 65°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗