KCHS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

71%

60%

44%

35%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.6¢Risks 53.60u

EPSNO 46.4¢Risks 46.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.40u · EPS −46.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	47.9%	40.4%	62.3%	29.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	47.9%	40.4%	62.3%	29.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	47.9%	40.4%	62.3%	29.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	47.9%	40.4%	62.3%	29.9%	13.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	75.1%	40.4%	62.3%	29.9%	12.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	75.1%	40.4%	62.3%	29.9%	12.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	75.1%	35.1%	62.3%	29.9%	12.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	75.1%	35.1%	62.3%	29.9%	12.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	75.1%	35.1%	68.1%	29.9%	12.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	75.1%	35.1%	68.1%	29.9%	12.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	75.1%	35.1%	68.1%	29.9%	12.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	55.5%	35.1%	68.1%	70.6%	59.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	55.5%	35.1%	68.1%	70.6%	59.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	55.5%	35.1%	68.1%	70.6%	59.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	55.5%	35.1%	68.1%	70.6%	59.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	55.5%	35.1%	68.1%	70.6%	59.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	55.5%	35.1%	72.1%	70.6%	59.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	55.5%	35.1%	72.1%	70.6%	59.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	55.5%	35.1%	72.1%	70.6%	59.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	43.8%	35.1%	72.1%	70.6%	59.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	43.8%	35.1%	72.1%	70.6%	59.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:54+00:00	43.8%	35.1%	72.1%	70.6%	59.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	43.8%	35.1%	72.1%	70.6%	59.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	74.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	75.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	60%	73.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	70.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	70.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗