KCHS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

71%

60%

44%

35%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.6¢Risks 53.60u

EPSNO 46.4¢Risks 46.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.40u · EPS −46.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	51.8%	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	81.1%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	0.4%	80.2%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	34.9%	70.2%	23.5%	—	56.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	37.1%	75.1%	38.5%	—	47.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	38.7%	79.5%	55.3%	—	37.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	56.4%	81.6%	60.3%	65.5%	56.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	82.1%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	74.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	74.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	75.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	60%	73.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	70.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	70.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗