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KCHS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
77%
AIFS
70%
ICON
67%
HRES
46%
EPS
30%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 53.2¢Risks 53.25u
VS
EPSNO 46.8¢Risks 46.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.75u · EPS −46.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00ICON: 60.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:00ICON: 60.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00ICON: 60.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00ICON: 60.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 60.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 67.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:0010-19 07:3210-20 07:0610-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:0066.2%18.2%69.5%38.4%19.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0066.2%18.2%69.5%38.4%19.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0066.2%18.2%69.5%38.4%19.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0066.2%18.2%69.5%38.4%19.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:0066.2%18.2%69.5%38.4%19.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:0066.2%19.4%77.2%54.3%60.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:0066.2%19.4%77.2%54.3%60.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:0066.2%19.4%72.8%54.3%60.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0066.2%19.4%72.8%54.3%60.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0066.2%19.4%72.8%54.3%60.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:0069.8%19.4%72.8%54.3%67.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:0069.8%19.4%72.8%54.3%67.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:0069.8%19.4%72.8%54.3%67.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:0069.8%19.4%72.8%54.3%67.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:0069.8%29.8%76.7%46.4%67.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0069.8%29.8%76.7%46.4%67.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0069.8%29.8%76.7%46.4%67.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0069.8%29.8%76.7%46.4%67.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:0069.8%29.8%76.7%46.4%67.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 277%77.9°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single70%77.3°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend67%76.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON67%77.7°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%75.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES46%73.9°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble30%72.9°F3.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗