KCHS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

70%

67%

46%

30%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.2¢Risks 53.25u

EPSNO 46.8¢Risks 46.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.75u · EPS −46.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	70.8%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	67.0%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	10.1%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	1.3%	71.2%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	36.2%	68.3%	8.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	47.1%	75.7%	45.6%	41.3%	44.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	72.6%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	77.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	77.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	67%	77.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	73.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	72.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗