KCHS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

20%

16%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.6¢Risks 12.55u

EPSNO 87.5¢Risks 87.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.45u · EPS −87.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	14.4%	0.0%	18.4%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	14.4%	0.0%	18.4%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	14.4%	0.0%	18.4%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	14.4%	0.0%	18.4%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	14.4%	0.0%	18.4%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	14.4%	0.0%	20.5%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	14.4%	0.0%	20.5%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	14.4%	0.0%	20.5%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	16.5%	0.0%	20.5%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	16.5%	0.0%	20.5%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	16.5%	0.0%	20.5%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:00	16.5%	0.0%	20.5%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	16.5%	0.0%	20.5%	12.8%	29.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	16.8%	0.0%	16.8%	12.8%	25.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	16.8%	0.0%	16.8%	12.8%	25.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	16.8%	0.0%	16.8%	12.8%	25.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	16.8%	0.0%	16.8%	12.8%	25.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00	16.8%	0.1%	16.2%	9.6%	25.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	16.8%	0.1%	16.2%	9.6%	25.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	16.8%	0.1%	16.2%	9.6%	25.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	16.8%	0.1%	16.2%	9.6%	25.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00	16.7%	0.1%	16.2%	9.6%	25.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	16.7%	0.1%	16.2%	9.6%	25.0%
2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00	16.7%	0.1%	16.2%	9.6%	25.0%
2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00	16.7%	0.1%	16.2%	9.6%	25.0%
2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00	15.8%	0.1%	19.6%	9.6%	25.0%
2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00	15.8%	0.1%	19.6%	9.6%	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	25%	77.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	78.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	77.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	73.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	72.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261026-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 19 · 19:45 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗