KCHS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

20%

16%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.6¢Risks 12.55u

EPSNO 87.5¢Risks 87.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.45u · EPS −87.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	25.2%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	20.6%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	0.5%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.0%	21.3%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	3.9%	17.5%	0.2%	—	3.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	6.2%	22.1%	5.7%	4.6%	5.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	18.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	23.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	25%	77.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	78.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	77.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	73.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	72.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261026-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 19 · 19:45 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗