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KCHS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
76%
AIFS
62%
HRES
54%
EPS
29%
ICON
23%
Consensus
50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 49.4¢Risks 49.35u
VS
ICONNO 50.6¢Risks 50.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.65u · ICON −50.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 66.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 72.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 77.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 72.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 73.7% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 24.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 57.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 12:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0034.0%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:002.6%———10.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0084.5%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0082.8%———57.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0075.2%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0067.0%———50.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0046.8%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0082.1%———43.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0067.5%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0039.5%———44.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0035.9%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0034.5%———47.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0054.8%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0034.9%———41.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0052.1%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0029.7%———39.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0030.6%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0035.4%———37.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0030.3%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0043.4%———39.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0038.4%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0038.8%———34.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0040.3%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0039.6%—66.0%—30.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0043.5%—72.5%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0048.8%———36.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0055.5%—11.4%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0053.8%—65.9%—35.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0051.9%—77.0%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0050.0%—58.4%—34.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0048.7%—72.0%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0043.9%2.0%82.0%24.4%43.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0038.5%—76.6%——
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——73.7%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 276%80.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single62%78.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
National Blend57%77.0°F2.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES54%77.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble29%75.0°F2.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON23%69.0°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261027-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗