KCLE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

93%

78%

62%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.0¢Risks 79.05u

EPSNO 21.0¢Risks 20.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.95u · EPS −20.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:15+00:00	32.7%	74.1%	90.0%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	32.7%	74.1%	90.0%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00	32.7%	74.1%	90.0%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	32.7%	74.1%	90.0%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:57+00:00	32.7%	74.1%	90.0%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:57+00:00	32.7%	61.9%	72.9%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00	32.7%	61.9%	72.9%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:28+00:00	32.7%	61.9%	72.9%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:49+00:00	74.1%	61.9%	72.9%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	74.0%	61.9%	72.8%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:48+00:00	74.0%	61.9%	72.8%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	74.0%	61.9%	72.8%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	74.0%	61.9%	72.8%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	74.0%	61.9%	76.1%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:12+00:00	74.0%	61.9%	76.1%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	74.0%	61.9%	76.1%	91.7%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:32+00:00	92.9%	61.9%	76.1%	92.7%	78.3%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	92.9%	61.9%	76.1%	92.7%	78.3%
2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00	92.9%	61.9%	76.1%	92.7%	78.3%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	92.9%	61.9%	76.1%	92.7%	78.3%
2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00	92.9%	61.9%	76.1%	92.7%	78.3%
2026-10-11T23:29:35+00:00	92.9%	61.9%	94.0%	92.7%	78.3%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	92.9%	61.9%	94.0%	92.7%	78.3%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	92.9%	61.9%	94.0%	92.7%	78.3%
2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00	96.2%	61.9%	94.0%	92.7%	78.3%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00	96.2%	61.9%	94.0%	92.7%	78.3%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	96.2%	61.9%	94.0%	92.7%	78.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	66.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0014
WeatherNext 2	94%	64.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0036
IFS HRES	93%	65.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0053
ICON	78%	64.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0471
IFS Ensemble	62%	58.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1452
National Blend	52%	57.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗