KCLE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

93%

78%

62%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.0¢Risks 79.05u

EPSNO 21.0¢Risks 20.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.95u · EPS −20.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	6.2%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	18.5%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	1.0%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	71.4%	38.9%	28.1%	—	69.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	82.0%	70.3%	73.4%	—	74.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	73.6%	76.6%	79.5%	—	71.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	90.3%	87.7%	82.1%	—	74.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	1.0%	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	88.8%	92.0%	82.7%	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	80.5%	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	82.2%	91.3%	76.6%	—	62.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	81.6%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	77.0%	90.2%	74.9%	—	59.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	76.9%	87.8%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	78.2%	86.9%	67.8%	—	75.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	79.6%	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	83.0%	90.6%	88.2%	—	80.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	83.1%	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.7%	89.1%	84.5%	89.6%	—	76.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	86.5%	89.3%	0.0%	—	83.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	87.3%	90.0%	91.0%	—	87.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	89.8%	89.8%	89.8%	91.3%	—	89.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	88.8%	94.5%	92.9%	79.2%	91.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	87.8%	95.1%	93.2%	—	92.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	90.5%	96.3%	95.0%	81.8%	92.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	95.0%	96.8%	95.0%	—	93.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	97.5%	98.2%	95.3%	94.1%	96.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	97.3%	98.9%	94.4%	—	95.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	97.1%	99.1%	92.9%	93.9%	96.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	99.7%	99.7%	98.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	66.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0014
WeatherNext 2	94%	64.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0036
IFS HRES	93%	65.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0053
ICON	78%	64.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0471
IFS Ensemble	62%	58.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1452
National Blend	52%	57.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗