KCLE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

84%

82%

78%

64%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.3¢Risks 76.30u

EPSNO 23.7¢Risks 23.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.70u · EPS −23.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:35+00:00	92.1%	47.0%	87.5%	87.2%	71.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	92.1%	47.0%	87.5%	87.2%	71.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00	92.1%	47.0%	91.2%	87.2%	71.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00	92.1%	47.0%	91.2%	87.2%	71.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	92.1%	47.0%	91.2%	87.2%	71.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:29+00:00	86.3%	47.0%	91.2%	77.7%	82.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:00	86.3%	47.0%	91.2%	77.7%	82.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	86.3%	47.0%	91.2%	77.7%	82.3%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	86.3%	47.0%	91.2%	77.7%	82.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	86.3%	47.0%	91.2%	77.7%	82.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00	86.3%	47.0%	89.1%	77.7%	82.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	86.3%	63.8%	89.1%	77.7%	82.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:57+00:00	86.3%	63.8%	89.1%	77.7%	82.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	84.1%	63.8%	89.1%	77.7%	82.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	84.1%	63.6%	89.0%	77.7%	82.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	64.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0121
AIFS Single	84%	63.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0253
ICON	82%	65.0°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0313
IFS HRES	78%	63.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0497
IFS Ensemble	64%	60.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1325
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172
National Blend	53%	59.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2209

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗