KCLE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

84%

82%

78%

64%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.3¢Risks 76.30u

EPSNO 23.7¢Risks 23.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.70u · EPS −23.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	3.3%	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	11.3%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	58.4%	26.3%	17.5%	—	56.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	70.9%	56.6%	60.1%	—	61.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	59.8%	63.5%	67.0%	—	57.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	81.6%	77.6%	69.8%	—	60.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	0.3%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	78.7%	83.8%	70.0%	—	58.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	66.6%	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	68.6%	82.2%	61.3%	—	44.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	67.4%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	60.9%	79.7%	58.2%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	60.3%	75.4%	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	61.5%	73.7%	49.0%	—	57.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	62.8%	81.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	67.0%	78.8%	74.9%	—	63.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	66.5%	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	75.3%	67.9%	76.2%	—	56.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	70.4%	75.1%	0.0%	—	66.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	71.0%	75.8%	77.6%	—	72.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	74.7%	74.7%	77.5%	—	74.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	72.4%	83.4%	80.1%	57.4%	77.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	69.8%	84.2%	80.0%	—	78.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	73.9%	86.6%	83.5%	59.3%	77.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	82.7%	87.5%	82.7%	—	79.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	89.2%	91.6%	82.8%	79.8%	85.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.8%	88.0%	93.5%	79.8%	—	81.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	86.6%	94.3%	75.0%	77.4%	84.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	97.2%	97.4%	90.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	64.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0121
AIFS Single	84%	63.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0253
ICON	82%	65.0°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0313
IFS HRES	78%	63.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0497
IFS Ensemble	64%	60.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1325
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172
National Blend	53%	59.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2209

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗