KCLE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

80%

59%

51%

25%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.0¢Risks 57.00u

ICONNO 43.0¢Risks 43.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.00u · ICON −43.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:03+00:00	69.4%	35.6%	82.1%	65.4%	60.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	69.4%	35.6%	84.8%	65.4%	60.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	69.4%	35.6%	84.8%	65.4%	60.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	69.4%	35.6%	84.8%	65.4%	60.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	69.4%	35.6%	84.8%	65.4%	60.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:40+00:00	68.0%	35.6%	84.8%	58.9%	75.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	68.0%	35.6%	84.8%	58.9%	75.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	68.0%	35.6%	84.8%	58.9%	75.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	68.0%	35.6%	84.8%	58.9%	75.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:20+00:00	68.0%	44.0%	74.6%	58.9%	75.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	68.0%	44.0%	74.6%	58.9%	75.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	68.0%	44.0%	74.6%	58.9%	75.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	68.0%	44.0%	74.6%	58.9%	75.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	66.4%	44.0%	74.4%	58.9%	75.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	66.4%	46.0%	74.4%	58.9%	75.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00	76.6%	41.6%	79.7%	45.5%	39.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	76.6%	41.6%	79.7%	45.5%	39.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	76.6%	41.6%	85.7%	45.5%	39.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	76.6%	41.6%	85.7%	45.5%	39.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	76.6%	41.6%	85.7%	45.5%	39.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	76.6%	41.6%	85.7%	45.5%	39.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	65.4%	41.6%	85.7%	51.8%	44.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	65.4%	41.6%	85.7%	51.8%	44.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	65.4%	41.6%	85.7%	51.8%	44.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	65.4%	41.6%	85.7%	51.8%	44.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	65.4%	41.6%	78.8%	51.8%	44.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	65.4%	41.6%	78.8%	51.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	65.4%	41.6%	78.8%	51.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	65.4%	41.6%	78.8%	51.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	65.4%	41.6%	78.8%	51.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	65.4%	41.6%	78.8%	51.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	65.4%	41.6%	78.8%	51.8%	44.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	73.0%	38.9%	83.3%	53.9%	34.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	73.0%	38.9%	85.6%	53.9%	34.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	73.0%	38.9%	85.6%	53.9%	34.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	73.0%	38.9%	85.6%	53.9%	34.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:35+00:00	76.9%	38.9%	85.6%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	76.9%	38.9%	85.6%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	76.9%	38.9%	85.6%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	76.9%	38.9%	85.6%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	76.9%	38.9%	85.6%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	76.9%	57.0%	86.4%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	76.9%	57.0%	86.4%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	76.9%	57.0%	86.4%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	79.1%	57.0%	86.4%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	79.2%	56.8%	86.4%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	79.2%	59.4%	86.4%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	79.2%	59.4%	86.4%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	79.2%	59.4%	85.7%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	79.2%	59.4%	85.7%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	79.2%	59.4%	85.7%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	79.2%	59.4%	85.7%	55.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	77.7%	59.4%	85.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	77.7%	59.4%	85.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	77.7%	59.4%	85.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	77.7%	59.4%	85.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	77.7%	59.4%	85.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	77.7%	59.4%	85.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	77.7%	59.4%	85.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	77.7%	59.4%	85.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	79.9%	59.4%	85.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	79.9%	59.4%	85.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	79.9%	59.4%	85.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	79.9%	59.4%	85.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	79.9%	59.4%	89.2%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	79.9%	59.4%	89.2%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	79.9%	59.4%	89.2%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	79.9%	59.4%	89.2%	51.1%	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	65.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0117
AIFS Single	80%	64.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0404
IFS Ensemble	59%	62.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1648
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
IFS HRES	51%	61.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
ICON	25%	59.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5655

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗