KCLE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

80%

59%

51%

25%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.0¢Risks 57.00u

ICONNO 43.0¢Risks 43.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.00u · ICON −43.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	4.6%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	37.6%	12.2%	7.2%	—	35.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	35.0%	38.5%	—	39.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	37.2%	40.9%	44.7%	—	35.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	61.8%	56.4%	46.8%	—	36.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	0.0%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	56.6%	63.9%	45.8%	—	33.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	41.5%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	43.0%	60.4%	35.4%	—	21.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	41.1%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	33.9%	55.5%	31.4%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	32.6%	49.0%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	33.0%	46.1%	22.5%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	33.5%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	36.9%	51.0%	45.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	35.5%	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	44.5%	36.1%	45.6%	—	25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	37.8%	43.3%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	37.4%	43.0%	45.4%	—	38.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	40.5%	40.5%	44.0%	—	40.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	36.5%	51.2%	46.3%	22.7%	42.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	32.5%	51.3%	44.9%	—	42.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	35.6%	54.0%	48.7%	22.0%	39.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	45.8%	54.2%	45.8%	—	41.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	55.8%	61.4%	44.2%	40.0%	48.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	51.5%	64.8%	38.1%	—	41.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	46.8%	65.4%	30.3%	33.1%	43.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	74.6%	75.9%	53.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	65.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0117
AIFS Single	80%	64.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0404
IFS Ensemble	59%	62.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1648
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
IFS HRES	51%	61.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
ICON	25%	59.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5655

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗