KCLE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

55%

35%

17%

16%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.4¢Risks 39.40u

EPSNO 60.6¢Risks 60.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.60u · EPS −60.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:36+00:00	50.8%	27.4%	56.8%	45.2%	63.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	50.8%	27.4%	56.8%	45.2%	63.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	50.8%	27.4%	60.6%	45.2%	63.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	50.8%	27.4%	60.6%	45.2%	63.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	50.8%	27.4%	60.6%	45.2%	63.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	50.0%	27.4%	60.6%	45.2%	59.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	50.0%	27.4%	60.6%	45.2%	59.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	50.0%	27.4%	60.6%	45.2%	59.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	50.0%	27.4%	60.6%	45.2%	59.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	50.0%	27.4%	60.6%	39.2%	59.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	50.0%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	59.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	50.0%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	59.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	50.0%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	59.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	39.6%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	59.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	39.6%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	59.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:52+00:00	39.6%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	59.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	39.6%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	59.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	39.6%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	59.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	39.6%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	59.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	39.6%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	59.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	39.6%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	59.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	39.7%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	40.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	39.7%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	40.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	39.7%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	40.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	39.7%	27.4%	62.4%	39.1%	40.2%
2026-10-14T10:33:34+00:00	39.7%	27.4%	62.4%	25.5%	40.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	39.7%	7.6%	54.3%	25.5%	40.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	39.7%	7.6%	54.3%	25.5%	40.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	39.7%	7.6%	54.3%	25.5%	40.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	46.5%	7.6%	54.3%	25.5%	40.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	46.5%	7.6%	54.3%	25.5%	41.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	46.5%	9.7%	54.3%	25.5%	41.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	46.5%	9.7%	54.3%	25.5%	41.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	46.5%	9.7%	54.3%	25.5%	41.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	46.5%	9.7%	43.6%	25.5%	41.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	46.5%	9.7%	43.6%	25.5%	41.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	46.5%	9.7%	43.6%	25.5%	41.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	50.0%	9.7%	43.6%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	50.0%	9.7%	43.6%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	50.0%	9.7%	43.6%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	50.0%	9.7%	43.6%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	50.0%	9.7%	43.6%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	50.0%	9.7%	46.8%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	50.0%	9.7%	46.8%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	50.0%	9.7%	46.8%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	46.8%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	46.8%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	46.8%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:13+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	46.8%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	46.8%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	54.3%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	54.3%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	52.6%	9.7%	54.3%	25.5%	33.2%
2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:00	45.4%	9.7%	54.3%	28.8%	21.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	45.4%	9.7%	54.3%	28.8%	21.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	45.4%	9.7%	54.3%	28.8%	21.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	45.4%	9.7%	54.3%	28.8%	21.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00	45.4%	9.7%	54.3%	28.8%	21.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	45.4%	9.7%	59.4%	28.8%	21.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	45.4%	20.8%	59.4%	28.8%	21.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:25+00:00	45.4%	20.8%	59.4%	28.8%	21.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	60.1%	21.0%	59.4%	28.8%	21.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	60.1%	21.0%	59.4%	28.8%	21.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:17+00:00	47.2%	20.5%	58.2%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	47.2%	20.5%	58.2%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	47.2%	20.5%	58.2%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	47.2%	20.5%	58.2%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	47.1%	20.5%	58.2%	34.4%	21.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	47.1%	20.5%	58.2%	34.4%	21.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	47.1%	20.5%	58.2%	34.4%	21.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	47.1%	20.5%	58.2%	34.4%	21.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	47.1%	20.5%	58.2%	34.4%	21.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	47.1%	15.4%	55.1%	34.4%	21.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	47.1%	15.4%	55.1%	34.4%	21.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	47.1%	15.4%	55.1%	34.4%	21.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:40+00:00	52.0%	15.4%	55.1%	25.5%	21.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	52.0%	15.9%	55.1%	25.5%	21.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	52.0%	16.7%	55.1%	25.5%	21.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	55.1%	25.5%	21.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	55.1%	25.5%	21.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:23+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	62.6%	25.5%	21.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	62.6%	25.5%	21.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	62.6%	25.5%	21.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	62.6%	25.5%	16.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:33+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	62.6%	25.5%	16.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	62.6%	25.5%	16.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	62.6%	25.5%	16.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	62.6%	34.8%	16.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	62.6%	34.8%	16.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	62.6%	34.8%	16.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	52.0%	16.2%	62.6%	34.8%	16.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	54.9%	16.2%	62.6%	34.8%	16.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	54.9%	16.2%	62.6%	34.8%	16.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	54.9%	16.2%	62.6%	34.8%	16.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	54.9%	16.2%	62.6%	34.8%	16.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	64.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1399
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1954
AIFS Single	55%	64.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2034
IFS HRES	35%	61.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4251
National Blend	24%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.5700
ICON	17%	60.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6922
IFS Ensemble	16%	60.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.7022

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗