KCLE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

55%

35%

17%

16%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.4¢Risks 39.40u

EPSNO 60.6¢Risks 60.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.60u · EPS −60.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	25.2%	6.5%	3.5%	—	23.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	35.7%	22.6%	25.4%	—	26.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	23.9%	27.0%	30.3%	—	22.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	46.0%	40.5%	31.6%	—	23.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	0.0%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	40.1%	47.5%	30.0%	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	26.0%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	26.9%	43.0%	20.8%	—	10.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	24.9%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	19.0%	37.3%	17.2%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	17.7%	30.9%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	17.7%	27.9%	10.7%	—	15.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	17.7%	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	19.7%	31.2%	26.8%	—	17.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	18.3%	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	24.7%	18.3%	25.5%	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	19.0%	23.1%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	18.3%	22.4%	24.2%	—	19.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	19.9%	19.9%	22.5%	—	19.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	16.6%	27.6%	23.6%	8.5%	20.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	13.5%	26.9%	21.9%	—	20.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	14.9%	28.4%	24.0%	7.4%	17.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	21.1%	27.6%	21.1%	—	18.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	28.0%	33.1%	19.1%	16.3%	22.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	23.6%	35.2%	14.4%	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	19.2%	34.6%	9.6%	11.0%	17.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	43.4%	45.1%	22.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	64.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1399
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1954
AIFS Single	55%	64.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2034
IFS HRES	35%	61.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4251
National Blend	24%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.5700
ICON	17%	60.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6922
IFS Ensemble	16%	60.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.7022

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗