KCLE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.1¢Risks 21.10u

EPSNO 78.9¢Risks 78.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +78.90u · EPS −78.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:00	11.6%	1.7%	5.0%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	11.6%	1.7%	5.0%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	11.6%	1.7%	5.0%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	11.6%	1.7%	5.0%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00	11.6%	1.7%	5.0%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	11.6%	1.7%	4.2%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	11.6%	0.2%	4.2%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:25+00:00	11.6%	0.2%	4.2%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	4.6%	0.2%	4.2%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	4.6%	0.2%	4.2%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00	4.6%	0.2%	4.2%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	4.6%	0.2%	4.2%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	4.6%	0.2%	2.4%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	4.6%	0.2%	2.4%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	4.6%	0.2%	2.4%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	4.6%	0.2%	2.4%	12.3%	66.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	2.4%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	2.4%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	2.4%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	2.4%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	3.6%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	3.6%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	3.6%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	8.6%	0.2%	3.6%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	8.6%	0.2%	3.6%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	8.6%	0.2%	3.6%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	8.6%	0.2%	3.6%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:17+00:00	8.6%	0.2%	3.6%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	8.6%	0.2%	4.2%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	8.6%	0.2%	4.2%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	8.6%	0.2%	4.2%	10.4%	62.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	7.2%	0.2%	4.2%	10.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	7.2%	0.2%	4.2%	10.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	7.2%	0.2%	4.2%	10.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	7.2%	0.2%	4.2%	10.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	7.2%	0.2%	4.2%	10.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	7.2%	0.7%	2.4%	10.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	7.2%	0.7%	2.4%	10.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	7.2%	0.7%	2.4%	10.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:40+00:00	6.9%	0.7%	2.4%	9.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	6.9%	0.7%	2.4%	9.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	6.9%	0.7%	2.4%	9.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	6.9%	0.7%	2.4%	9.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	6.9%	0.7%	2.4%	9.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:23+00:00	6.9%	0.7%	1.6%	9.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	6.9%	0.7%	1.6%	9.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	6.9%	0.7%	1.6%	9.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	1.6%	9.0%	52.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:33+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	1.6%	9.0%	52.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	1.6%	9.0%	52.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	1.6%	9.0%	52.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	1.6%	7.9%	52.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	2.1%	7.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	2.1%	7.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	2.1%	7.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	2.1%	7.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	2.1%	7.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	2.1%	7.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	2.1%	7.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	2.1%	7.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	0.9%	7.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	0.9%	7.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	0.9%	7.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:35+00:00	3.2%	0.7%	0.9%	2.3%	33.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	3.2%	0.7%	0.9%	2.3%	33.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	3.2%	0.7%	0.9%	2.3%	33.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	3.2%	0.7%	0.9%	2.3%	33.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	3.2%	0.7%	0.9%	2.3%	33.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	3.7%	0.6%	0.5%	2.3%	33.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	3.7%	0.6%	0.5%	2.3%	33.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	3.7%	0.6%	0.5%	2.3%	33.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	3.7%	0.6%	0.5%	2.3%	33.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	3.7%	0.6%	0.5%	2.3%	33.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	3.7%	0.6%	0.5%	2.3%	33.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	0.5%	2.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	0.5%	2.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	0.5%	2.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	0.5%	2.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	0.8%	2.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	0.8%	2.3%	41.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	0.8%	2.3%	41.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	0.8%	2.3%	41.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	4.2%	0.6%	0.8%	2.3%	41.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	4.2%	0.6%	0.8%	2.3%	41.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	4.2%	0.6%	0.8%	2.3%	41.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	42%	33.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1731
National Blend	11%	35.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0112
NWS forecast	7%	37.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.0045
AIFS Single	4%	38.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0018
IFS HRES	2%	38.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0005
WeatherNext 2	<1%	40.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	36.3°F	1.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261018-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗