KCLE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.1¢Risks 21.10u

EPSNO 78.9¢Risks 78.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +78.90u · EPS −78.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	6.8%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	3.6%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	11.0%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	23.3%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	38.9%	45.1%	2.6%	—	1.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	8.2%	33.0%	10.6%	—	1.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	14.6%	35.8%	1.8%	—	1.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	4.5%	28.8%	4.5%	—	1.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	2.5%	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	6.3%	7.1%	5.3%	—	1.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	9.2%	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	26.2%	6.2%	6.8%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	29.4%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	49.1%	5.8%	8.3%	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	54.7%	7.4%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	66.1%	9.4%	6.5%	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	39.1%	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	63.1%	7.4%	2.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	72.1%	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	51.1%	3.8%	1.9%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	50.0%	1.3%	2.7%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	52.3%	1.7%	1.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	44.0%	2.9%	1.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	33.1%	1.8%	1.1%	48.8%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	42.3%	1.4%	1.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	40.7%	1.1%	0.8%	40.7%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	36.3%	0.9%	0.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	30.5%	0.3%	0.4%	24.5%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	32.5%	0.2%	1.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	30.3%	0.1%	4.1%	11.7%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	42%	33.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1731
National Blend	11%	35.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0112
NWS forecast	7%	37.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.0045
AIFS Single	4%	38.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0018
IFS HRES	2%	38.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0005
WeatherNext 2	<1%	40.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	36.3°F	1.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261018-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗