KCLE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

77%

46%

32%

19%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.2¢Risks 50.25u

ICONNO 49.8¢Risks 49.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.75u · ICON −49.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:13+00:00	77.2%	32.6%	72.8%	24.4%	62.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	77.2%	32.6%	72.8%	24.4%	62.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	77.2%	32.6%	73.7%	24.4%	62.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	77.2%	32.6%	73.7%	24.4%	62.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	77.2%	32.6%	73.7%	24.4%	62.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:00	69.1%	32.6%	73.7%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	69.1%	32.6%	73.7%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	69.1%	32.6%	73.7%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	69.1%	32.6%	73.7%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00	69.1%	32.6%	73.7%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	69.1%	32.6%	79.0%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	69.1%	40.6%	79.0%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:25+00:00	69.1%	40.6%	79.0%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	82.0%	40.6%	79.0%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	82.0%	40.6%	79.0%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00	82.0%	38.8%	79.0%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	82.0%	38.8%	79.0%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	82.0%	38.8%	84.0%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	82.0%	38.8%	84.0%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	82.0%	38.8%	84.0%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	82.0%	38.8%	84.0%	33.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	71.4%	38.8%	84.0%	44.4%	57.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	71.4%	38.8%	84.0%	44.4%	57.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	71.4%	38.8%	84.0%	44.4%	57.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	71.4%	38.8%	84.0%	44.4%	57.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	71.4%	38.8%	75.8%	44.4%	57.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	71.4%	38.8%	75.8%	44.4%	57.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	71.4%	38.8%	75.8%	44.4%	57.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	72.9%	38.8%	75.8%	44.4%	57.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	72.9%	38.8%	75.8%	44.4%	57.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	72.9%	38.8%	75.8%	44.4%	57.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	72.9%	38.8%	75.8%	44.4%	57.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	75.8%	29.6%	78.8%	31.1%	46.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	75.8%	29.6%	78.0%	31.1%	46.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	75.8%	29.6%	78.0%	31.1%	46.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	75.8%	29.6%	78.0%	31.1%	46.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:35+00:00	76.9%	29.6%	78.0%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	76.9%	29.6%	78.0%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	76.9%	29.6%	78.0%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	76.9%	29.6%	78.0%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	76.9%	29.6%	78.0%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	76.9%	55.8%	75.1%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	76.9%	55.8%	75.1%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	76.9%	55.8%	75.1%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	73.9%	55.8%	75.1%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	73.9%	55.7%	75.1%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	73.9%	58.4%	75.1%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	73.9%	58.4%	75.1%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	73.9%	58.4%	74.1%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	73.9%	58.4%	74.1%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	73.9%	58.4%	74.1%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	73.9%	58.4%	74.1%	33.9%	26.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	71.4%	58.4%	74.1%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	71.4%	58.4%	74.1%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	71.4%	58.4%	74.1%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	71.4%	58.4%	74.1%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	71.4%	58.4%	68.6%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	71.4%	58.4%	68.6%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	71.4%	58.4%	68.6%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	71.4%	58.4%	68.6%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	72.3%	58.4%	68.6%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	72.3%	58.4%	68.6%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	72.3%	58.4%	68.6%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	72.3%	58.4%	68.6%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	72.3%	58.4%	76.1%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	72.3%	58.4%	76.1%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	72.3%	58.4%	76.1%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	72.3%	58.4%	76.1%	31.3%	24.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00	75.3%	58.4%	76.1%	32.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	75.3%	58.4%	76.1%	32.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	75.3%	58.4%	76.1%	32.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	75.3%	58.4%	76.1%	32.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	75.3%	51.4%	75.4%	32.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	75.3%	51.4%	75.4%	32.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	75.3%	51.4%	75.4%	32.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	75.3%	51.4%	75.4%	32.4%	20.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	72.0%	51.4%	75.4%	32.3%	20.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:59+00:00	76.9%	46.0%	68.5%	32.3%	19.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00	76.9%	46.0%	81.4%	32.3%	19.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	76.9%	46.0%	81.4%	32.3%	19.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	76.9%	46.0%	81.4%	32.3%	19.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	68.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	65.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	63.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	64.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗