KCLE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

77%

46%

32%

19%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.2¢Risks 50.25u

ICONNO 49.8¢Risks 49.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.75u · ICON −49.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	31.2%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	1.8%	68.8%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	18.4%	70.8%	3.8%	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	24.9%	62.3%	53.6%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	30.9%	59.8%	46.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	47.6%	57.9%	33.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	0.1%	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	44.2%	62.3%	22.5%	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	36.6%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	35.4%	55.2%	13.1%	—	15.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	47.3%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	42.7%	60.0%	44.5%	—	20.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	40.6%	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	39.4%	24.7%	45.1%	—	8.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	44.0%	11.4%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	38.8%	23.5%	31.2%	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	46.8%	30.7%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	30.1%	32.1%	14.9%	0.0%	11.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	34.6%	42.2%	0.0%	—	10.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	26.0%	38.5%	10.0%	10.5%	9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	27.3%	38.1%	11.4%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	30.9%	51.2%	13.7%	0.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	28.0%	55.1%	13.5%	—	7.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	27.3%	51.3%	6.5%	12.7%	7.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.4%	48.6%	58.3%	8.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.7%	58.6%	65.5%	14.6%	40.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	68.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	65.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	63.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	64.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗