KCLE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

58%

27%

17%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.9¢Risks 34.90u

EPSNO 65.1¢Risks 65.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.10u · EPS −65.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:04+00:00	60.5%	25.2%	73.4%	53.1%	39.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	60.5%	25.2%	76.6%	53.1%	39.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	60.5%	25.2%	76.6%	53.1%	39.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	60.5%	25.2%	76.6%	53.1%	39.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	60.5%	25.2%	76.6%	53.1%	39.7%
2026-10-13T08:03:40+00:00	57.5%	25.2%	76.6%	53.0%	37.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	57.5%	25.2%	76.6%	53.0%	37.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	57.5%	25.2%	76.6%	53.0%	37.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	57.5%	25.2%	76.6%	53.0%	37.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:20+00:00	57.5%	13.3%	75.8%	53.0%	37.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	57.5%	13.3%	75.8%	53.0%	37.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	57.5%	13.3%	75.8%	53.0%	37.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	57.5%	13.3%	75.8%	53.0%	37.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	56.7%	13.3%	75.8%	53.0%	38.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	56.7%	14.0%	75.8%	53.0%	38.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:37+00:00	56.7%	13.9%	75.8%	53.0%	38.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	56.7%	13.9%	75.8%	53.0%	38.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	56.7%	13.9%	75.1%	53.0%	38.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	56.7%	13.9%	75.1%	53.0%	38.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	56.7%	13.9%	75.1%	53.0%	38.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	75.1%	53.0%	44.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	75.1%	53.0%	44.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	75.1%	53.0%	44.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	75.1%	53.0%	44.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	75.1%	42.7%	44.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	44.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	44.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	44.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	52.3%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	44.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	52.3%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	44.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:52+00:00	52.3%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	44.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	52.3%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	44.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	52.3%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	44.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	52.3%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	44.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	52.3%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	44.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	52.3%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	44.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	61.9%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	52.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	61.9%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	52.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	61.9%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	52.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	61.9%	13.9%	80.8%	42.7%	52.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:34+00:00	61.9%	13.9%	80.8%	32.6%	52.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	61.9%	11.0%	66.0%	32.6%	52.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	61.9%	11.0%	66.0%	32.6%	52.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	61.9%	11.0%	66.0%	32.6%	52.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	58.0%	11.0%	66.0%	32.6%	52.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	58.0%	11.0%	66.0%	32.6%	52.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	58.0%	13.6%	66.0%	32.6%	52.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	58.0%	13.6%	66.0%	32.6%	52.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	58.0%	13.6%	66.0%	32.6%	52.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	58.0%	13.6%	51.9%	32.6%	52.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	58.0%	13.6%	51.9%	32.6%	52.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	58.0%	13.6%	51.9%	32.6%	52.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	61.1%	13.6%	51.9%	14.9%	49.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	61.1%	13.6%	51.9%	14.9%	49.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	61.1%	13.6%	51.9%	14.9%	49.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	61.1%	13.6%	51.9%	14.9%	49.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	61.1%	13.6%	51.9%	14.9%	49.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	61.1%	13.6%	54.8%	14.9%	49.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	61.1%	13.6%	54.8%	14.9%	49.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	61.1%	13.6%	54.8%	14.9%	49.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	63.4%	13.6%	54.8%	14.9%	49.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	63.4%	13.6%	54.8%	14.9%	49.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	63.4%	13.6%	54.8%	14.9%	49.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:17+00:00	56.9%	21.0%	56.4%	29.5%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	56.9%	21.0%	57.5%	29.5%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	56.9%	21.0%	57.5%	29.5%	41.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	56.9%	21.0%	57.5%	29.5%	41.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	54.6%	21.0%	57.5%	29.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	54.6%	21.0%	57.5%	29.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	54.6%	21.0%	57.5%	29.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	54.6%	21.0%	57.5%	29.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	54.6%	21.0%	57.5%	29.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	54.6%	9.9%	51.2%	29.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	54.6%	9.9%	51.2%	29.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	54.6%	9.9%	51.2%	29.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:40+00:00	54.6%	9.9%	51.2%	10.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	54.6%	10.0%	51.2%	10.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	54.6%	10.6%	51.2%	10.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	54.6%	10.6%	51.2%	10.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	54.6%	10.6%	51.2%	10.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:23+00:00	54.6%	10.6%	54.7%	10.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	54.6%	10.6%	54.7%	10.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	54.6%	10.6%	54.7%	10.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	55.6%	10.6%	54.7%	10.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:34+00:00	55.6%	10.6%	54.7%	10.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	55.6%	10.6%	54.7%	10.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	55.6%	10.6%	54.7%	10.5%	27.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	55.6%	10.6%	54.7%	17.4%	27.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	55.6%	10.6%	58.2%	17.4%	27.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	55.6%	10.6%	58.2%	17.4%	27.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	55.6%	10.6%	58.2%	17.4%	27.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	59.2%	10.6%	58.2%	17.4%	27.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	59.2%	10.6%	58.2%	17.4%	27.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	59.2%	10.6%	58.2%	17.4%	27.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	59.2%	10.6%	58.2%	17.4%	27.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	59%	68.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1665
WeatherNext 2	58%	68.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1747
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.2016
ICON	27%	65.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5285
National Blend	23%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.5991
IFS HRES	17%	63.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6823
IFS Ensemble	11%	64.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.7992

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗