KCLE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

58%

27%

17%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 34.9¢Risks 34.90u

EPSNO 65.1¢Risks 65.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +65.10u · EPS −65.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	20.7%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	0.7%	56.1%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	10.5%	57.7%	1.7%	—	19.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	14.8%	47.8%	39.2%	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	18.9%	44.7%	31.6%	—	20.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	32.3%	42.1%	20.1%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	0.0%	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	28.6%	45.8%	12.0%	—	4.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	22.0%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	20.8%	37.9%	5.9%	—	7.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	30.2%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	25.9%	41.8%	27.4%	—	9.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	23.8%	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	22.5%	12.1%	27.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	25.7%	4.4%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	21.2%	10.8%	15.7%	—	4.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	27.1%	15.0%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	14.3%	15.5%	5.6%	0.0%	4.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	16.8%	22.3%	0.0%	—	3.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	11.0%	19.1%	3.1%	3.3%	2.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	11.4%	18.3%	3.5%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	13.0%	27.6%	4.3%	0.0%	2.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	10.9%	30.2%	4.0%	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	10.1%	26.2%	1.4%	3.5%	1.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	23.2%	31.2%	2.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	30.5%	37.2%	3.7%	16.3%	2.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	36.6%	36.6%	2.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	29.0%	39.1%	3.1%	22.6%	3.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	41.8%	50.0%	7.3%	—	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	59%	68.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1665
WeatherNext 2	58%	68.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1747
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.2016
ICON	27%	65.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5285
National Blend	23%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.5991
IFS HRES	17%	63.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6823
IFS Ensemble	11%	64.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.7992

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗