KCLE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

63%

45%

29%

12%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.9¢Risks 41.95u

HRESNO 58.1¢Risks 58.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.05u · HRES −58.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00	83.3%	45.2%	82.7%	42.8%	72.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	83.3%	45.2%	82.7%	42.8%	72.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	83.3%	45.2%	87.6%	42.8%	72.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	83.3%	45.2%	87.6%	42.8%	72.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	83.3%	45.2%	87.6%	42.8%	72.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	83.3%	45.2%	87.6%	42.8%	72.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	80.3%	45.2%	87.6%	47.6%	72.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	80.3%	45.2%	87.6%	47.6%	72.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	80.3%	45.2%	87.6%	47.6%	72.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	80.3%	45.2%	87.6%	47.6%	72.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	80.3%	45.2%	78.6%	47.6%	72.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	80.3%	45.2%	78.6%	47.6%	72.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	80.3%	45.2%	78.6%	47.6%	72.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	72.4%	45.2%	78.6%	47.6%	72.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	72.4%	45.2%	78.6%	47.6%	72.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	72.4%	45.2%	78.6%	47.6%	72.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	72.4%	45.2%	78.6%	47.6%	72.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	50.9%	55.9%	54.3%	29.5%	29.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	50.9%	55.9%	45.7%	29.5%	29.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	50.9%	55.9%	45.7%	29.5%	29.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	50.9%	55.9%	45.7%	29.5%	29.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	50.9%	55.9%	45.7%	29.5%	29.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00	52.8%	55.9%	45.7%	19.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	52.8%	55.9%	45.7%	19.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	52.8%	55.9%	45.7%	19.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	52.8%	55.9%	45.7%	19.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	52.8%	38.8%	51.2%	19.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	52.8%	38.8%	51.2%	19.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	52.8%	38.8%	51.2%	19.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	52.8%	38.8%	51.2%	19.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	50.0%	39.1%	51.2%	19.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	50.0%	39.1%	51.2%	19.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	50.0%	33.5%	51.2%	19.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	50.0%	33.5%	51.2%	19.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	50.0%	33.5%	48.8%	19.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	50.0%	33.5%	48.8%	19.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	50.0%	33.5%	48.8%	19.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	44.4%	33.5%	48.8%	13.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	44.4%	33.5%	48.8%	13.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	44.4%	33.5%	48.8%	13.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	44.4%	33.5%	48.8%	13.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	44.4%	33.5%	48.8%	13.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	44.4%	33.5%	41.8%	13.1%	22.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	44.4%	33.5%	41.8%	13.1%	22.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	44.4%	33.5%	41.8%	13.1%	22.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	40.7%	33.5%	41.8%	13.1%	22.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	40.7%	33.5%	41.8%	13.1%	22.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	40.7%	33.5%	41.8%	13.1%	22.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	40.7%	33.5%	41.8%	13.1%	22.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00	62.6%	32.6%	55.1%	18.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	62.6%	32.6%	55.1%	18.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	62.6%	32.6%	62.6%	18.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	62.6%	32.6%	62.6%	18.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	62.6%	32.6%	62.6%	18.3%	22.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	72.1%	32.6%	62.6%	18.3%	28.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	72.1%	32.6%	62.6%	18.3%	28.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	72.1%	32.6%	62.6%	18.3%	28.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	72.1%	32.6%	62.6%	18.3%	28.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00	72.1%	44.9%	63.4%	11.8%	28.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	72.1%	44.9%	63.4%	11.8%	28.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	72.1%	44.9%	63.4%	11.8%	28.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	72.1%	44.9%	63.4%	11.8%	28.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	72.1%	44.9%	63.4%	11.8%	28.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	67.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	66.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	65.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	63.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	61.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗