KCLE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

63%

45%

29%

12%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.9¢Risks 41.95u

HRESNO 58.1¢Risks 58.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.05u · HRES −58.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	29.3%	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	13.2%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	51.9%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.3%	9.3%	63.9%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	57.7%	66.4%	8.5%	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	54.4%	39.9%	30.4%	—	23.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	55.3%	37.2%	35.8%	—	20.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	24.8%	42.9%	47.6%	—	12.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	0.2%	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	19.5%	38.5%	21.3%	—	16.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	14.2%	40.7%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	10.9%	38.8%	11.8%	—	15.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	14.5%	36.8%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	15.4%	28.2%	9.0%	—	10.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	23.8%	27.6%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	18.3%	23.2%	2.9%	—	5.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	24.1%	33.5%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	17.0%	17.0%	0.7%	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	27.1%	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	30.1%	19.0%	1.1%	—	3.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	27.6%	19.8%	0.0%	—	3.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	24.2%	17.5%	1.2%	0.0%	2.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	34.7%	33.6%	1.1%	—	2.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	40.1%	28.7%	2.1%	17.4%	2.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	20.9%	1.8%	—	1.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	67.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	66.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	65.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	63.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	61.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗