KCLE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

34%

18%

15%

12%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.4¢Risks 25.45u

HRESNO 74.6¢Risks 74.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.55u · HRES −74.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:40+00:00	55.6%	32.4%	68.9%	28.7%	16.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	55.5%	32.4%	68.8%	28.8%	16.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	55.5%	33.4%	68.8%	28.8%	16.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	55.5%	33.4%	68.8%	28.8%	16.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	55.5%	33.4%	68.8%	28.8%	16.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:23+00:00	55.5%	33.4%	66.7%	28.8%	16.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	55.5%	33.4%	66.7%	28.8%	16.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	55.5%	33.4%	66.7%	28.8%	16.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	37.1%	33.4%	66.7%	28.8%	34.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:34+00:00	37.1%	33.4%	66.7%	28.8%	34.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	37.1%	33.4%	66.7%	28.8%	34.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	37.1%	33.4%	66.7%	28.8%	34.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	37.1%	33.4%	66.7%	32.6%	34.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	37.1%	33.4%	63.1%	32.7%	34.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	37.1%	33.4%	63.1%	32.7%	34.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	37.1%	33.4%	63.1%	32.7%	34.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	35.7%	33.4%	63.1%	32.7%	34.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	35.7%	33.4%	63.1%	32.7%	34.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	35.7%	33.4%	63.1%	32.7%	34.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	35.7%	33.4%	63.1%	32.7%	34.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	35.7%	33.4%	63.1%	32.7%	34.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	35.7%	33.4%	56.2%	32.7%	34.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	35.7%	33.4%	56.2%	32.7%	34.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	35.7%	33.4%	56.2%	32.7%	34.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:35+00:00	49.3%	33.4%	56.2%	22.9%	25.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	49.3%	33.4%	56.2%	22.9%	25.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	49.3%	33.4%	56.2%	22.9%	25.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	49.3%	33.4%	56.2%	22.9%	25.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	49.3%	33.4%	56.2%	22.9%	25.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	49.3%	14.0%	50.0%	22.9%	25.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	49.3%	14.0%	50.0%	22.9%	25.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	49.3%	14.0%	50.0%	22.9%	25.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	46.3%	14.0%	50.0%	23.2%	25.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	46.3%	14.1%	50.0%	22.9%	25.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	46.3%	15.2%	50.0%	22.9%	25.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	46.3%	15.2%	50.0%	22.9%	25.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	46.3%	15.2%	39.9%	22.9%	25.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	46.3%	15.2%	39.9%	22.9%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	46.3%	15.2%	39.9%	22.9%	25.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	46.3%	15.2%	39.9%	22.9%	25.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	39.8%	15.2%	39.9%	12.5%	18.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	39.8%	15.2%	39.9%	12.5%	18.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	39.8%	15.2%	39.9%	12.5%	18.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	39.8%	15.2%	39.9%	12.5%	18.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	39.8%	15.2%	33.5%	12.5%	18.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	39.8%	15.2%	33.5%	12.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	39.8%	15.2%	33.5%	12.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	39.8%	15.2%	33.5%	12.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	38.4%	15.2%	33.5%	12.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	38.4%	15.2%	33.5%	12.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	38.4%	15.2%	33.5%	12.5%	18.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	65.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	65.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	61.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	59.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗