KCLE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

34%

18%

15%

12%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.4¢Risks 25.45u

HRESNO 74.6¢Risks 74.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.55u · HRES −74.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	2.4%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	5.9%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	0.8%	37.4%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	6.3%	38.9%	5.8%	—	15.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	5.9%	25.4%	22.1%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	2.5%	28.3%	3.3%	—	6.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	35.5%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	9.7%	27.4%	3.4%	—	5.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	0.0%	9.5%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	19.5%	25.1%	6.3%	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	8.5%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	9.7%	33.8%	0.5%	—	1.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	5.7%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	2.9%	35.6%	0.9%	—	1.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	12.2%	38.8%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	4.9%	30.4%	4.9%	18.3%	1.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	24.9%	—	—	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	65.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	65.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	61.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	59.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗