KCLE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 4.2¢Risks 1.04u

EPSNO 95.9¢Risks 23.96u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.96u · EPS −23.96u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T04:14:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:40+00:00	18.1%	1.5%	24.5%	6.7%	5.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	18.3%	1.5%	24.6%	6.8%	5.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	18.3%	1.6%	24.6%	6.8%	5.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	18.3%	1.6%	24.6%	6.8%	5.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	18.3%	1.6%	24.6%	6.8%	5.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:23+00:00	18.3%	1.6%	22.8%	6.8%	5.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	18.3%	1.6%	22.8%	6.8%	5.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	18.3%	1.6%	22.8%	6.8%	5.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	8.5%	1.6%	22.8%	6.8%	15.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:34+00:00	8.5%	1.6%	22.8%	6.8%	15.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	8.5%	1.6%	22.8%	6.8%	15.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	8.5%	1.6%	22.8%	6.8%	15.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	8.5%	1.6%	22.8%	8.4%	15.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	8.5%	1.6%	20.0%	8.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	8.5%	1.6%	20.0%	8.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	8.5%	1.6%	20.0%	8.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	7.9%	1.6%	20.0%	8.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	7.9%	1.6%	20.0%	8.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	7.9%	1.6%	20.0%	8.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	7.9%	1.6%	20.0%	8.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	7.9%	1.6%	20.0%	8.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	7.9%	1.6%	15.4%	8.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	7.9%	1.6%	15.4%	8.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	7.9%	1.6%	15.4%	8.4%	15.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:35+00:00	13.0%	1.6%	15.4%	4.9%	6.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	13.0%	1.6%	15.4%	4.9%	6.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	13.0%	1.6%	15.4%	4.9%	6.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	13.0%	1.6%	15.4%	4.9%	6.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	13.0%	1.6%	15.4%	4.9%	6.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	13.0%	0.2%	9.9%	4.9%	6.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	13.0%	0.2%	9.9%	4.9%	6.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	13.0%	0.2%	9.9%	4.9%	6.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	9.9%	5.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	10.0%	4.9%	6.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	10.0%	4.9%	6.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	10.0%	4.9%	6.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	6.2%	4.9%	6.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	6.2%	4.9%	6.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	6.2%	4.9%	6.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	11.5%	0.3%	6.2%	4.9%	6.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	6.2%	2.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	6.2%	2.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	6.2%	2.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	6.2%	2.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	4.4%	2.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	4.4%	2.0%	4.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	4.4%	2.0%	4.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	4.4%	2.0%	4.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	8.0%	0.3%	4.4%	2.0%	4.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	8.0%	0.3%	4.4%	2.0%	4.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	8.0%	0.3%	4.4%	2.0%	4.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:09+00:00	8.0%	0.3%	4.4%	2.0%	4.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	8%	65.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	67.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	65.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	61.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	59.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261023-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗