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KCLE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
8%
WN2
4%
ICON
4%
HRES
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 4.2¢Risks 1.04u
VS
EPSNO 95.9¢Risks 23.96u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.96u · EPS −23.96u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-14 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:002.4%————1.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:001.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:009.1%————3.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:004.3%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0020.4%————4.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0012.3%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:004.3%————2.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0029.2%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0051.6%————9.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:003.4%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0012.8%————8.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0027.4%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:008.3%————9.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0022.0%————14.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0019.7%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0024.3%————9.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0019.6%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.6%————12.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0013.1%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0016.7%————10.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:007.4%—15.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0010.8%—0.0%——6.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:002.4%—2.8%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0022.4%————3.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0033.2%—53.1%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0027.5%—0.2%——5.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0027.7%—12.4%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0014.8%—0.5%——4.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:009.7%—20.8%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0014.3%0.0%9.0%——1.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:006.2%—0.4%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:002.0%0.5%9.0%0.4%—2.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:001.6%—4.1%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:003.5%0.4%3.9%3.1%—0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:002.9%—3.5%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.7%0.1%4.2%0.1%—0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.3%—6.1%——0.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.5%0.6%3.6%0.1%—0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.7%0.0%0.6%——0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.6%1.7%2.7%0.3%—0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:002.0%0.4%4.5%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:002.1%0.4%4.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%5.7%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%3.9%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.7%0.5%4.4%——0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:001.3%0.1%2.4%0.1%0.9%0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.9%—1.5%——0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single8%65.9°F5.4°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
NWS forecast8%66.0°F5.2°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
National Blend6%67.0°F4.1°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%65.5°F4.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
ICON4%61.0°F7.2°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES2%59.9°F6.6°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%64.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261023-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗