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KCLE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
80%
ICON
48%
AIFS
44%
EPS
13%
HRES
4%
Consensus
35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u
VS
HRESNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.90u · HRES −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00AIFS Single: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00AIFS Single: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:18+00:00AIFS Single: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00AIFS Single: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T16:44:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.3% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:18+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00IFS HRES: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS HRES: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS HRES: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS HRES: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 3.9% · 2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00IFS HRES: 3.9% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00IFS HRES: 3.9% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS HRES: 3.9% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 3.9% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00ICON: 45.4% · 2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00ICON: 45.4% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00ICON: 45.4% · 2026-10-19T16:44:18+00:00ICON: 45.4% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00ICON: 45.4% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00ICON: 45.4% · 2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:0029.9%13.4%84.7%8.3%45.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:0029.9%13.4%84.7%8.3%45.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:18+00:0029.9%13.4%84.7%8.3%45.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:0029.9%13.4%77.5%8.3%45.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:0029.9%13.4%77.5%8.3%45.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:0029.9%13.4%77.5%8.3%45.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:0033.5%13.4%77.5%3.9%48.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:0033.5%13.4%77.5%3.9%48.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:0033.5%13.4%77.5%3.9%48.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:0033.5%13.4%77.5%3.9%48.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:0033.5%13.4%77.5%3.9%48.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:0033.5%13.4%80.3%3.9%48.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:0033.5%13.4%80.3%3.9%48.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:0033.5%13.4%80.3%3.9%48.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:0043.6%13.4%80.3%3.9%48.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:0043.6%13.4%80.3%3.9%48.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:0043.6%13.4%80.3%3.9%48.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 280%71.0°F4.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
NWS forecast54%68.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
ICON48%67.2°F6.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single44%66.7°F4.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
National Blend32%66.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble13%62.4°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%57.3°F5.8°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗