KCLE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

48%

44%

13%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

HRESNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.90u · HRES −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	25.2%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	51.3%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	2.9%	54.2%	0.6%	—	7.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	20.4%	55.8%	10.3%	—	7.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	31.6%	56.1%	32.3%	—	10.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	24.8%	44.4%	13.6%	—	4.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	26.5%	42.5%	14.8%	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	24.6%	49.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	39.6%	45.6%	14.1%	30.7%	4.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	51.8%	—	—	3.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	71.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	48%	67.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	66.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	62.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	57.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗