KCLE / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

80%

70%

51%

46%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.7¢Risks 71.70u

EPSNO 28.3¢Risks 28.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.30u · EPS −28.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00	71.1%	49.1%	77.3%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	71.1%	49.1%	77.3%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	71.1%	49.1%	77.3%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	71.1%	49.1%	77.3%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	71.1%	37.3%	78.9%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	71.1%	37.3%	78.9%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	71.1%	37.3%	78.9%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	71.1%	37.3%	78.9%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	80.8%	37.3%	78.9%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	80.8%	37.3%	78.9%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	80.8%	33.5%	78.9%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	80.8%	33.5%	78.9%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	80.8%	33.5%	85.9%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	80.8%	33.5%	85.9%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	80.8%	33.5%	85.9%	46.3%	8.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	77.8%	33.5%	85.9%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	77.8%	33.5%	85.9%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	77.8%	33.5%	85.9%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	77.8%	33.5%	85.9%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	77.8%	33.5%	85.9%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	77.8%	33.5%	91.2%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	77.8%	33.5%	91.2%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	77.8%	33.5%	91.2%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	78.8%	33.5%	91.2%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	78.8%	33.5%	91.2%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	78.8%	33.5%	91.2%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	78.8%	33.5%	91.2%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:00+00:00	78.8%	33.5%	91.2%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00	78.8%	33.5%	92.9%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	78.8%	33.5%	92.9%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	78.8%	33.5%	92.9%	54.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00	81.3%	33.5%	92.9%	50.6%	79.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	81.3%	33.5%	92.9%	50.6%	79.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	81.3%	33.5%	92.9%	50.6%	79.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	81.3%	33.5%	92.9%	50.6%	79.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00	81.3%	33.5%	92.9%	50.6%	79.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	81.3%	45.7%	97.7%	50.6%	79.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	81.3%	45.7%	97.7%	50.6%	79.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	81.3%	45.7%	97.7%	50.6%	79.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	70.4%	45.7%	97.7%	50.6%	79.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	70.4%	45.7%	97.7%	50.6%	79.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	71.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	68.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	65.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	65.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗