KCLE / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

80%

70%

51%

46%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.7¢Risks 71.70u

EPSNO 28.3¢Risks 28.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.30u · EPS −28.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	48.8%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	78.8%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	0.1%	25.4%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	62.4%	73.7%	13.7%	—	34.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	66.3%	50.7%	29.7%	—	34.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	66.3%	74.9%	38.7%	—	29.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	82.6%	83.7%	49.2%	61.8%	46.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	88.2%	—	—	39.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	71.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	68.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	65.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	65.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗