KCLE / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

53%

44%

27%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.6¢Risks 42.65u

EPSNO 57.4¢Risks 57.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.35u · EPS −57.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00	25.4%	4.9%	29.8%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	25.4%	4.9%	29.8%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	25.4%	4.9%	29.8%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	25.4%	4.9%	29.8%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:50+00:00	25.4%	1.9%	28.5%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	25.4%	1.9%	28.5%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	25.4%	1.9%	28.5%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	25.4%	1.9%	28.5%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	36.4%	1.9%	28.5%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	36.4%	1.9%	28.5%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	36.4%	1.5%	28.5%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	36.4%	1.5%	28.5%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	36.4%	1.5%	38.5%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00	36.4%	1.5%	38.5%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	36.4%	1.5%	38.5%	11.9%	2.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	32.6%	1.5%	38.5%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	32.6%	1.5%	38.5%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	32.6%	1.5%	38.5%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	32.6%	1.5%	38.5%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	32.6%	1.5%	38.5%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	32.6%	1.5%	49.2%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	32.6%	1.5%	49.2%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	32.6%	1.5%	49.2%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	33.8%	1.5%	49.2%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	33.8%	1.5%	49.2%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	33.8%	1.5%	49.2%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	33.8%	1.5%	49.2%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:00+00:00	33.8%	1.5%	49.2%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00	33.8%	1.5%	53.9%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	33.8%	1.5%	53.9%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	33.8%	1.5%	53.9%	16.4%	47.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00	34.2%	1.5%	53.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	34.2%	1.5%	53.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	34.2%	1.5%	53.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	34.2%	1.5%	53.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00	34.2%	1.5%	53.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	34.2%	2.3%	68.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	34.2%	2.3%	68.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	34.2%	2.3%	68.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	22.4%	2.3%	68.9%	14.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	22.4%	2.3%	68.9%	14.8%	43.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	68.9%	14.8%	43.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	68.9%	14.8%	43.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:18+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	68.9%	14.8%	43.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	76.0%	14.8%	43.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	76.0%	14.8%	43.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	76.0%	14.8%	43.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	21.8%	2.6%	76.0%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	21.8%	2.6%	76.0%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	21.8%	2.6%	76.0%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	21.8%	2.6%	76.0%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	21.8%	2.6%	76.0%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	21.8%	2.6%	80.4%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00	21.8%	2.6%	80.4%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	21.8%	2.6%	80.4%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	32.2%	2.6%	80.4%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	32.2%	2.6%	80.4%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	32.2%	2.6%	80.4%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00	32.2%	2.6%	80.4%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	32.2%	2.6%	80.4%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	32.2%	2.6%	74.0%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	32.2%	2.6%	74.0%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	32.2%	2.6%	74.0%	21.9%	43.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	44.4%	2.6%	74.0%	21.9%	52.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	44.4%	2.6%	74.0%	21.9%	52.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	44.4%	2.6%	74.0%	21.9%	52.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	44.4%	2.6%	74.0%	21.9%	52.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00	44.4%	9.3%	76.0%	27.2%	52.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	44.4%	9.3%	76.0%	27.2%	52.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	44.4%	9.3%	76.0%	27.2%	52.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	44.4%	9.3%	76.0%	27.2%	52.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	75.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	53%	72.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	71.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗