KCLE / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

53%

44%

27%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.6¢Risks 42.65u

EPSNO 57.4¢Risks 57.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.35u · EPS −57.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	13.7%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	36.6%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	3.2%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	18.0%	27.5%	1.0%	—	5.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	19.4%	10.3%	3.5%	—	4.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	17.9%	25.1%	5.2%	—	3.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	32.3%	33.7%	7.8%	13.6%	6.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	40.3%	—	—	4.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	75.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	53%	72.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	71.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗