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KCLE / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
59%
WN2
59%
AIFS
46%
EPS
45%
ICON
13%
Consensus
47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 36.3¢Risks 36.30u
VS
ICONNO 63.7¢Risks 63.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +63.70u · ICON −63.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00IFS HRES: 59.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00IFS HRES: 59.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 59.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 59.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00IFS HRES: 59.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:0045.8%45.3%58.7%59.2%13.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0045.8%45.3%58.7%59.2%13.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0045.8%45.3%58.7%59.2%13.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:0045.8%45.3%58.7%59.2%13.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:0045.8%45.3%58.7%59.2%13.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES59%68.0°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 259%67.7°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
National Blend55%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single46%65.9°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble45%66.0°F4.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON13%55.4°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗