KCLE / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

59%

46%

45%

13%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 36.3¢Risks 36.30u

ICONNO 63.7¢Risks 63.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +63.70u · ICON −63.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	78.1%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	3.0%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	18.0%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	43.9%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	64.4%	23.5%	5.6%	—	24.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	38.5%	83.9%	38.5%	60.1%	27.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	84.9%	—	—	3.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	59%	68.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	67.7°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	65.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	66.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	55.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗