KCLT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≤ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 21.8¢Risks 21.80u

EPSNO 78.2¢Risks 78.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +78.20u · EPS −78.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:51+00:00	13.4%	0.0%	6.1%	39.0%	8.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	13.4%	0.0%	6.1%	39.0%	8.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	13.4%	0.0%	6.1%	39.0%	8.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:52+00:00	13.4%	0.0%	6.1%	39.0%	8.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	13.4%	0.0%	7.0%	39.0%	8.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	13.4%	0.0%	7.0%	39.0%	8.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	13.4%	0.0%	7.0%	39.0%	8.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	13.4%	0.0%	7.0%	39.0%	8.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	7.0%	39.0%	8.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	7.0%	39.0%	8.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	7.0%	39.0%	8.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	7.0%	39.0%	8.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	8.1%	39.0%	8.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	8.1%	39.0%	8.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	8.1%	39.0%	8.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	11.6%	0.0%	8.1%	39.0%	5.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	11.6%	0.0%	8.1%	39.0%	5.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	11.6%	0.0%	8.1%	39.0%	5.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:03+00:00	11.6%	0.0%	8.1%	39.0%	5.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	11.6%	0.0%	8.1%	43.6%	5.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	11.6%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	5.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	11.6%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	5.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	11.6%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	5.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	5.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	5.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	5.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	5.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	5.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	5.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	5.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	5.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	6.5%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	0.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	6.5%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	0.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	6.5%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	0.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	6.5%	0.0%	7.3%	43.6%	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	44%	63.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1901
NWS forecast	35%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.1232
National Blend	32%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1030
WeatherNext 2	7%	67.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0053
AIFS Single	6%	69.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0042
ICON	<1%	75.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 62°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261017-TMAX-LE62
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗