KCLT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≤ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 21.8¢Risks 21.80u

EPSNO 78.2¢Risks 78.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +78.20u · EPS −78.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	36.2%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.6%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	6.9%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	9.9%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	3.1%	0.0%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.9%	5.8%	1.3%	0.4%	—	8.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	1.6%	0.8%	—	6.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	20.0%	2.1%	22.2%	—	23.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	1.8%	0.2%	12.3%	—	25.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	11.8%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	13.4%	1.9%	17.8%	—	30.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	23.3%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	13.1%	12.7%	14.6%	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	26.4%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	7.6%	3.2%	2.8%	—	32.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	0.1%	0.9%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.5%	—	2.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	0.3%	0.1%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.5%	—	1.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	0.0%	0.0%	2.6%	0.0%	1.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	0.1%	0.0%	3.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	0.0%	0.0%	7.2%	—	2.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.2%	—	2.9%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	0.0%	0.0%	8.0%	0.0%	0.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	0.0%	0.0%	9.8%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	0.0%	0.0%	7.9%	0.0%	1.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	0.0%	0.0%	8.6%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	0.0%	4.4%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	1.8%	33.8%	20.2%	—	28.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.7%	60.9%	23.8%	56.3%	71.0%	51.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	41.8%	15.0%	54.9%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	44%	63.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1901
NWS forecast	35%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.1232
National Blend	32%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1030
WeatherNext 2	7%	67.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0053
AIFS Single	6%	69.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0042
ICON	<1%	75.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 62°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261017-TMAX-LE62
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗