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KCLT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
85%
WN2
74%
HRES
73%
ICON
64%
EPS
64%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 74.5¢Risks 74.50u
VS
EPSNO 25.5¢Risks 25.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +25.50u · EPS −25.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-11T13:35:38+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-11T15:11:28+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00AIFS Single: 79.5% · 2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00AIFS Single: 79.5% · 2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00AIFS Single: 79.5% · 2026-10-11T21:13:50+00:00AIFS Single: 79.5% · 2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00AIFS Single: 79.5% · 2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 79.5% · 2026-10-11T23:29:30+00:00AIFS Single: 79.5% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00AIFS Single: 79.5% · 2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-11T13:35:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T15:11:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T21:13:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-11T23:29:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.6% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-11T13:35:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-11T15:11:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.4% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-11T21:13:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.1% · 2026-10-11T23:29:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00IFS HRES: 81.1% · 2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:00IFS HRES: 81.1% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00IFS HRES: 81.1% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00IFS HRES: 81.1% · 2026-10-11T13:35:38+00:00IFS HRES: 81.1% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00IFS HRES: 81.1% · 2026-10-11T15:11:28+00:00IFS HRES: 81.1% · 2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00IFS HRES: 81.1% · 2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00IFS HRES: 81.1% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 81.1% · 2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:00IFS HRES: 81.1% · 2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-11T21:13:50+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-11T23:29:30+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-11T21:13:50+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-11T23:29:30+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:0010-11 11:1910-11 19:4310-12 03:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:0035.3%69.1%52.4%81.1%—
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:0035.3%69.1%52.4%81.1%—
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:0035.3%69.1%52.4%81.1%—
2026-10-11T13:35:38+00:0047.1%69.1%52.4%81.1%—
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:0047.1%69.1%52.4%81.1%—
2026-10-11T15:11:28+00:0047.1%63.6%52.4%81.1%—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:0047.1%63.6%52.4%81.1%—
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:0047.1%63.6%52.4%81.1%—
2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:0047.1%63.6%53.2%81.1%—
2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:0047.1%63.6%53.2%81.1%—
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:0047.1%63.6%53.2%81.1%—
2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:0079.5%63.6%53.2%73.1%64.3%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:0079.5%63.6%53.2%73.1%64.3%
2026-10-11T21:13:50+00:0079.5%63.6%53.2%73.1%64.3%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:0079.5%63.6%53.2%73.1%64.3%
2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:0079.5%63.6%53.2%73.1%64.3%
2026-10-11T23:29:30+00:0079.5%63.6%74.1%73.1%64.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:0079.5%63.6%74.1%73.1%64.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:0079.5%63.6%74.1%73.1%64.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:0085.4%63.6%74.1%73.1%64.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:0085.4%63.6%74.1%73.1%64.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:0085.4%63.6%74.1%73.1%64.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single85%68.4°F5.6°F2026-10-11 18:000.0213
WeatherNext 274%65.7°F5.0°F2026-10-11 12:000.0671
IFS HRES73%66.4°F6.3°F2026-10-11 12:000.0724
ICON64%66.1°F9.9°F2026-10-11 12:000.1282
IFS Ensemble64%64.0°F4.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.1325
National Blend53%63.0°F7.7°F2026-10-11 06:000.2247

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261018-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗