KCLT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

74%

73%

64%

64%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 74.5¢Risks 74.50u

EPSNO 25.5¢Risks 25.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +25.50u · EPS −25.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	80.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.3%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	13.7%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	85.8%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	23.1%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	9.9%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	43.7%	20.4%	45.8%	—	54.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	65.0%	44.9%	44.2%	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	97.3%	51.5%	59.8%	—	53.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	67.7%	62.5%	48.4%	—	46.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	1.7%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	73.5%	70.0%	41.7%	—	37.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	52.6%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	57.0%	65.4%	28.4%	—	16.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	38.5%	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	29.7%	58.2%	13.4%	—	7.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	30.9%	53.8%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	36.6%	48.0%	21.8%	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	45.0%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	31.2%	50.0%	39.8%	—	24.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	26.2%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	34.1%	26.4%	37.1%	—	12.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	33.6%	32.6%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	35.2%	28.0%	38.5%	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	39.3%	39.3%	35.9%	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	45.0%	45.0%	34.2%	13.0%	24.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	43.6%	43.6%	33.7%	—	25.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	40.7%	47.3%	35.6%	10.7%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	45.8%	44.4%	32.5%	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	50.0%	52.9%	34.5%	11.5%	25.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	50.0%	56.0%	35.2%	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	40.6%	56.3%	27.6%	8.3%	11.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	50.0%	50.0%	30.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	68.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0213
WeatherNext 2	74%	65.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0671
IFS HRES	73%	66.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0724
ICON	64%	66.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1282
IFS Ensemble	64%	64.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1325
National Blend	53%	63.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2247

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261018-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗