WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
18%
AIFS
8%
WN2
7%
HRES
6%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 9.3¢Risks 4.65u
VS
EPSNO 90.7¢Risks 45.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.35u · EPS −45.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-13T04:15:25+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T08:02:51+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T04:15:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T08:02:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T04:15:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T08:02:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:52+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-13T04:15:25+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-10-13T08:02:51+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00IFS HRES: 5.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:52+00:00ICON: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00ICON: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00ICON: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00ICON: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T04:15:25+00:00ICON: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00ICON: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00ICON: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00ICON: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00ICON: 18.1% · 2026-10-13T08:02:51+00:00ICON: 18.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00ICON: 18.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00ICON: 18.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:52+00:0010-13 01:5910-13 06:3210-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:52+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:0012.4%0.5%5.6%4.1%18.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:0012.4%0.5%5.6%4.1%18.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:0012.4%0.5%5.6%4.1%18.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:25+00:0012.4%0.5%5.6%4.1%18.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:0012.4%0.5%6.8%4.1%18.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:0012.4%0.5%6.8%4.1%18.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:0012.4%0.5%6.8%4.1%18.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:0012.4%0.5%6.8%4.1%18.5%
2026-10-13T08:02:51+00:007.6%0.5%6.8%5.5%18.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:007.6%0.5%6.8%5.5%18.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:007.6%0.5%6.8%5.5%18.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:52+00:007.6%0.5%6.8%5.5%18.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON18%74.1°F7.0°F2026-10-13 00:000.0328
AIFS Single8%72.9°F5.3°F2026-10-13 00:000.0058
WeatherNext 27%73.1°F5.0°F2026-10-12 18:000.0046
IFS HRES6%70.0°F6.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.0030
NWS forecast5%71.0°F5.8°F2026-10-13 03:000.0026
National Blend4%71.0°F5.5°F2026-10-13 00:000.0018
IFS Ensemble<1%68.8°F4.5°F2026-10-12 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 13 · 01:59 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗